2005 west coast upwelling

Analysis T3 below appeared in:
Schwing, F. B., N. A. Bond, S. J. Bograd, T. Mitchell, M. A. Alexander, and N. Mantua, 2006: Delayed coastal upwelling along the U.S. West Coast in 2005: A historical perspective. GRL, 31, L22S01, doi:10.1029/2006GL026911.

T1: Define the upwelling index.
T2: Correlate the index with SLP
T3: Correlate and regress SLP onto the index, and compare with 2005
T4: Time series of derived SLP index.
T5: Alongshore SST index
T6: Update of Nick's Table 1
T7: 2005 monthly and mean April-May-June SST anomaly maps

T1: Average April-May-June PFEL upwelling between 49.5-40.5N for 1946-2005. This is the mean of the 3 unnormalized indices (estimates for 48, 45, and 42N), and the climatology is 1967-2005 to be consistent with the climatology for the daily upwelling time series in the paper. The standard deviation of the index is 19 m^3/s/100m, and the correlation coefficients of the index with the constituent indices are 0.79, 0.93, and 0.94 at 48, 45, and 42N, respectively.

The paper used 1946-2005 values, and I have updated this analysis to include 2006.

big GIF | PDF | PNG | PS
Digital values of the index (m^3/s/100m) as a two-column table: year, value.


       Values * 10 (1946 is -29.1 m^3/s/100m)
       +0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9
 1940                               -291 -205 -276 -161
 1950  -78  114 -227 -256 -228  155  100 -150 -110    6
 1960 -222 -237 -120  -68  190  374  359  463  259 -136
 1970  130  -11   44  142  165  326   64   29  -62  158
 1980  -23 -163  178 -105 -202  -85 -220 -111 -297  -92
 1990 -218  172   57 -425 -101  -22 -113 -245  109  254
 2000  -44  183  123  145  -55 -273   44

T2: This analysis is background for the paper and is not being used in the paper.
Mean April-May-June NCEP NCAR reanalysis sea-level pressure (SLP) anomalies correlated with the upwelling index, 1946-2005. Contour interval 0.1 . This is the "are there any teleconnections" analysis, and the remote correlations are pretty weak.

PDF | PNG | PS

T3: (a) April-May-June SST (shade) and SLP (contour) anomalies regressed onto the upwelling index, scaled by the 2005 upwelling index value (-27 m^3/s/100m), and (b) same, but 2005 anomalies (1967-2005 climatology). Contour interval 1 hPa, with thick zero and dashed negative. SST is the Met Office Hadley Centre's sea ice and sea surface temperature (SST) data set at 1-degree latitude-longitude resolution (Rayner et al. 2003), and SLP is the NCEP - NCAR reanalysis (Kistler et al. 2001) at 2.5-degree latitude-longitude resolution.

Kistler, R., W. Collins, S. Saha, G. White,J. Woollen, E. Kalnay, M. Chelliah, W. Ebisuzaki, M. Kanamitsu, V. Kousky, H. van den Dool, R. Jenne, M. Fiorino, 2001: The NCEP-NCAR 50-year reanalysis: Monthly means cd-rom and documentation. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 82, 247-268.
Rayner N. A., D. E. Parker, E. B. Horton, C. K. Folland, L. V. Alexander, D. P. Rowell, E. C. Kent, A. Kaplan, Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century, J. Geophys. Res., 108 (D14), 4407, doi:10.1029/2002JD002670, 2003.

big GIF | EPS | PDF | PNG | PS | TIFF
one-column width version: PDF | PS

This analysis is an alternative analysis and is not being used in the paper.
Top panel: The April-May-June SLP climatology, 2mb contour interval, 1020mb thickened.
Bottom panel: 2005 SLP (contours, same as top panel), and shaded anomalies < -1mb, with darker shading for <-2, -3, -4mb.

PDF | PNG | PS

T4: The SLP upwelling index is taken as the average SLP anomaly (mb) over the 5-degree latitude-longitude grid boxes with correlations with the upwelling index >=0.5. The standard deviation of this index is 1.5 mb, and the climatology is 1967-2005.

PDF | PNG | PS
1-column width version: PDF | PS
Digital values of the SLP upwelling index as a two-column table: year, value (mb). 1967-2005 climatology.

Same time series but just plotted for 1945-2006.

PDF | PNG | PS

The SLP-baed upwelling index and the PDO are correlated at -0.60

PDF | PNG | PS

SLP reference: Trenberth, K. E., and D. A. Paolino Jr., 1980: The Northern Hemisphere sea-level pressure data set: Trends, errors and discontinuities. Mon. Wea. Rev., 108, 855-872.
Gridded data in netCDF format | More up-to-date data from NCAR

T5: Time series of mean April-May-June alongshore SST (49-39N,124-125W) from Hadisst SST.

PDF | PNG | PS
Hadisst includes satellite data.
Digital values as a two-column table: year, value (C) for 1950-2005.

T6: An update of Nick's Table 1:
All values are standardized anomalies * 100, for example, -164 is -1.64 standard deviations about the 1950-2005 climatology.

 Year SLP_UI  UI    Nino   NOI  PDO EP-NP   PNA   SST
 2005  -164  -138    80   -31   122   -76   178   147

 1983   -16   -33   182  -122   185  -105   162   167
 1986   -27   -94   -18    15   107   -82    21    22
 1988  -149  -151  -177   -57    84  -111   167    -1
 1993  -270  -228   162  -213   173    -1   251   150
 1997  -176  -114   155  -182   172   184    62   161

 1967   197   230   -48     4  -114    11  -157   -50
 1968    81   127   -50   117   -70    57   -42    15
 1970   153    74     0   150    -8   -18   -47    -3
 1982    75   111   140  -136   -58    91   -32   -87
 1999   101   149  -148   145   -85    68    31  -170

SLP_UI: SLP-based upwelling index (T2 above).
UI: upwelling index (T1)
Nino3.4, NOI, PDO, EP-NP, PNA as defined by Nick.
SST: alongshore SST index (T5)
Eight-column table of the 56 years' values

T7:

* Links to monthly SST anomaly maps (PDF) files Hadisst | NCEP optimal interpolation. Both data sets are 1-degree latitude-longitude resolution, have some satellite SST estimates included, and the climatology is 1984-2005.

* Mean April-May-June SST anomalies in different SST datasets.

AVHRR (0.25-degree latitude-longitude resolution, satellite only)

big GIF | PDF | PNG | PS

HadISST (1-degree, in situ and satellite)

big GIF | PDF | PNG | PS

October 2009
Todd Mitchell ( 206-685-3786; mitchell@atmos.washington.edu )

JISAO data publications