Climate, salmon and reconsidering the role of prediction in salmon management

Table of Contents

Climate, salmon and reconsidering the role of prediction in salmon management

outline

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Paleo-salmon abundance estimates from Alaska lakebed sediment cores (Finney et al. 2000, Science)

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Upwelling impacts

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Recipe for biologically effective upwelling

Part 1 summary: climate has an important influence on Pacific salmonso what? What about predictability?

Part 2: Environmental Prediction

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Is there predictability for variations on the seasonal rhythms?

Environmental Prediction: how good are we?

Environmental Prediction: how good are fish? Oregon Production Index hatchery coho case study

OPI (hatchery) coho marine survival

multiple environmental bottlenecks: (Logerwell et al. submitted to Fish. Oc.)

Coastal ocean parameters and OPI hatchery coho survival: 1969-1998

4 parameter Ocean Conditions Model “hindcasts” for OPI coho marine survival, 1969-1998

“Ocean Conditions Model” predictions

Correlations and Predictability

Life in uncertain environments

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Part 3: fishery management

Hatcheries: a fish is a fish

So what?(what I’ve learned)

What are we managing, and why? (McEvoy 1996: The Fisherman’s Problem)

Sustainability?

Where predictability matters(Holling 1993 Ecological Applications)

Where Predictability doesn’t matter

The problem?

Summary and Conclusions

Saving the fish

Saving the Fishery

Managing for sustainability

Email: mantua@atmos.washington.edu

Home Page: http://jisao.washington.edu/SMA550