I) The following are analyses of the trend in ICOADS SST and SLP, and GPCP precipitation for the years after 1978. A PDF file of the analyses is linked here. Data and calculation details are disscussed here.
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The following just shows how much of the variance is explained by the trend.
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The trend looks a lot like the annual mean:
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Details:
ICOADS: The data is the "reduced resolution" (4 by 6 latitude-longitude resolution ) ICOADS anomalies from /home/disk/muggy/data/coads/reduced_resolution . I calculated annual averages of the available data for each calendar year. The result is similar if the analysis begins in 1984 and if 1997-98 is also omitted from the data set (set to missing).
II) The trend in 1981-2004 shows little resemblance to a "permanent El Nino." A second natural question is what is the trend like before the 1976-77 "regime shift". In the following I provide the trend for 1950-2004 and for pieces of that period: 1950-75, 1975-81, and 1981-2004. A PDF file with all of the ERSST analyses is linked here.
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The following 3 analyses are the trend calculated for 3 contiguous pieces of 1950-2004.
So what happens if you remove 1982-83 and 1997-98?
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