Annular Modes Website

Research papers: Trends

(Please send all additions to the following list to David W. J. Thompson davet@atmos.colostate.edu)

Appenzeller C, Stocker TF, Anklin M, 1998: North Atlantic oscillation dynamics recorded in Greenland ice cores Science, 282, 446-449.
Electronic version of manuscript available through this link.

Appenzeller C, Weiss AK, Staehelin J, 2000: North Atlantic oscillation modulates total ozone winter trends Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 1131-1134.
Electronic version of manuscript available through this link.

S. Bronnimann, J. Luterbacher, C. Schmutz, H. Wanner, J. Staehelin, 2000: Variability of total ozone at Arosa, Switzerland, since 1931 related to atmospheric circulation indices Geophys. Res. Lett, 27, 2213-2216.
Electronic version of manuscript available through this link.

Butchart, N., et al., 2000: J. Climate , 13, 2142-2159.
Electronic version of manuscript available through this link.

Chen, T. -C., and M. -C. Yen, 1997: Interdecadal variation of the Southern Hemisphere circulation. J. Climate, 10, 805-812.
Electronic version of manuscript available through this link.

Corti S, Molteni F, Palmer TN, 1999: Signature of recent climate change in frequencies of natural atmospheric circulation regimes Nature, 398, 799-802.

Delworth, D., and K. W. Dixon, 2000 Implications of the recent trend in the Arctic/North Atlantic Oscillation for the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation J. Climate, in press.
Electronic version of manuscript available through this link.

Deser C, Walsh JE, Timlin MS, 2000: Arctic sea ice variability in the context of recent atmospheric circulation trends J. Climate, 13, 617-633.
Electronic version of manuscript available through this link.

Feser F, Graf HF, Perlwitz J, 2000: Secular variability of the coupled tropospheric and stratospheric circulation in the GCM ECHAM 3/LSG >Theor. Appl. Clim., 65, 1-15.

Fyfe, J. C., G. J. Boer, and G. M. Flato, 1999: The Arctic and Antarctic Oscillations and their projected changes under global warming. Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 1601-1604.

Electronic version of manuscript available through this link.

N. P. Gillett, G. C. Hegerl, M. R. Allen, and P. A. Stott, Implications of observed changes in the Northern Hemisphere circulation for the detection of anthropogenic climate change, Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 993-996, 2000.
HTML version of manuscript available through this link.
PDF version of manuscript available through this link.

N. P. Gillett, M. P. Baldwin, and M. R. Allen, Nonlinearity in the stratospheric response to external forcing, J. Geophys. Res., 2000, submitted.
HTML version of manuscript available through this link.
PDF version of manuscript available through this link.

Graf, H. -F., J. Perlwitz, I. Kirchner, and I. Schult, 1995: Recent northern winter climate trends, ozone changes and increased greenhouse forcing. Contr. Atm. Phys., 68, 233-248.

Hansen, G., and M. P. Chipperfield, 1999: Ozone depletion at the edge of the Arctic polar vortex 1996/1997. J. Geophys. Res., 104, 1837.

Hansen J, Ruedy R, Glascoe J, et al., 1999: GISS analysis of surface temperature change J. Geophys. Res., 104, 30997-31022.

Hartmann, D.L., J.M. Wallace, V. Limpasuvan, D.W.J. Thompson, and J.R. Holton , 2000: Can Ozone Depletion and Greenhouse Warming Interact to Produce Rapid Climate Change? Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 97, 1412-1417.
Electronic version of manuscript available through this link.

Hasselmann K, 1999: Climate change - Linear and nonlinear signatures Nature, 398, 755-756.

Hines, K., Bromwich, D., Marshall, G., 2000: Artificial Surface Pressure Trends in the NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis over the Southern Ocean and Antarctica J. Climate, 13, 3940-3952.
Electronic version of manuscript available through this link.

Honda M, Yamazaki K, Nakamura H, et al., 1999: Dynamic and thermodynamic characteristics of atmospheric response to anomalous sea-ice extent in the Sea of Okhotsk J. Climate, 12, 3347-3358.
Electronic version of manuscript available through this link.

Hurrell, J. W., 1995: Decadal trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation region temperatures and precipitation. Science, 269, 676-679.

Hurrell, J. W., 1996: Influence of variations in extratropical wintertime teleconnections on Northern Hemisphere temperature, Geophys. Res. Lett., 23, 665-668.

Electronic version of manuscript available through this link.

Hurrell, J. W., and H. van Loon, 1997: Decadal variations in climate associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation. Climatic Change, 36, 301-326.

Johnson MA, Proshutinsky AY, Polyakov IV, 1999: Atmospheric patterns forcing two regimes of arctic circulation: A return to anticyclonic conditions? Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 1621-1624.
Electronic version of manuscript available through this link.

Kelly PM, Jones PD, Jia PQ, 1999: Spatial patterns of variability in the global surface air temperature data set J. Geophys. Res., 104, 24237-24256.

Kushnir, Y., V. J. Cardon, J. G. Greenwood, and M. A. Cane, 1997: The recent increase in North Atlantic wave heights. J. Climate, 10, 2107-2113.
Electronic version of manuscript available through this link.

Leroy SS, North GR, 2000: The application of COSMIC data to global change research Terr. Atmos. Ocean Sci., 11, 187-210.

Levitus S, Antonov JI, Boyer TP, et al., 2000: Warming of the world ocean Science, 287, 2225-2229.
Electronic version of manuscript available through this link.

MacDonald GM, Velichko AA, Kremenetski CV, et al., 2000: Holocene treeline history and climate change across northern Eurasia Quaternary Res., 53, 302-311.

Mao, Jianping and Alan Robock, 1998: Surface air temperature simulations by AMIP general circulation models: Volcanic and ENSO signals and systematic errors. J. Climate, 11, 1538-1552.
Abstract available through this link.

Maslanik, J.A., M.C. Serreze and R.G. Barry, 1996: Recent decreases in Arctic summer ice cover and linkages to atmospheric circulation anomalies. Geophys. Res. Lett., 23, 1677-1680.

Electronic version of manuscript available through this link.

McPhee, M. G., T. P. Stanton, J. H. Morison, and D. G. Martinson, 1998: Freshening of the upper ocean in the Arctic: Is perennial sea ice disappearing? Geophys. Res. Lett., 25, 1729-1932.

Meehl, G. A., J. W. Hurrell, and H. van Loon, 1998: A modulation of the mechanism of the semiannual oscillation in the Southern Hemisphere. Tellus, 50A, 442-450.

Monahan AH, Fyfe JC, Flato GM, 2000: A regime view of northern hemisphere atmospheric variability and change under global warming Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 1139-1142.
Electronic version of manuscript available through this link.

Mysak LA, Venegas SA, 1998: Decadal climate oscillations in the Arctic: A new feedback loop for atmosphere-ice-ocean interactions Geophys. Res. Lett., 25, 3607-3610.
Electronic version of abstract available through this link.

Newman, P. A., J. F. Gleason, R. D. McPeters, R. S. Stolarski, 1997: Anomalously low ozone over the Arctic. Geophys. Res. Lett., 24, 2689-2692.

Electronic version of manuscript available through this link.

Osborn TJ, Briffa KR, Tett SFB, et al., 1999: Evaluation of the North Atlantic Oscillation as simulated by a coupled climate model Clim. Dyn., 15, 685-702.
Electronic version of manuscript available through this link.

Overland, J. E., J. M. Adams, and N. A. Bond, 1999: Decadal variability of the Aleutian low and its relation to high-latitude circulationJ. Climate, 12, 1542-1548.
Electronic version of manuscript available through this link.

H. Paeth, A. Hense, R. Glowienka-Hense, S. Voss, U. Cubasch, 1999: The North Atlantic Oscillation as an indicator for greenhouse-gas induced regional climate change Climate Dyn., 15, 953-960.
Electronic version of manuscript available through this link.

Perlwitz, J., and H. -F. Graf, 1995: The statistical connection between tropospheric and stratospheric circulation of the Northern Hemisphere in winter. J. Climate, 8, 2281-2295.
Electronic version of manuscript available through this link.

Perlwitz J, Graf HF, Voss R, 2000: The leading variability mode of the coupled troposphere-stratosphere winter circulation in different climate regimes J. Geophys. Res., 105, 6915-6926.

Polyakov IV, Proshutinsky AY, Johnson MA, 2000: Seasonal cycles in two regimes of Arctic climate J. Geophys. Res., 104, 25761-25788.

Randel, W. J., F. Wu, J. M. Russell III and J. Waters, 1999: Space-time patterns of trends in stratospheric constituents derived from UARS measurements. J. Geophys. Res., 104, 3711-3727.

Randel, W. J., and F. Wu, 1999: Cooling of the Arctic and Antarctic polar stratospheres due to ozone depletion. J. Climate, 12, 1467-1479.
Electronic version of manuscript available through this link.

Rigor IG, Colony RL, Martin S, 2000: Variations in surface air temperature observations in the Arctic, 1979-97 J. Climate, 13, 896-914.
Electronic version of manuscript available through this link.

Robertson AW, Ghil M, Latif M, 2000: Interdecadal changes in atmospheric low-frequency variability with and without boundary forcing J. Atm. Sci., 57, 1132-1140.
Electronic version of manuscript available through this link.

Robock, Alan and Jianping Mao, 1995: The volcanic signal in surface temperature observations. J. Climate, 8, 1086-1103.
Abstract available through this link.

Robock, Alan, 2000: Volcanic eruptions and climate. Rev. Geophys., 38, 191-219. (Invited paper)
Abstract available through this link.

Rodo, X., E. Baert, F. A. Comin, 1997: Variations in seasonal rainfall in Southern Europe during the present century: relationships with the North Atlantic Oscillation and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation Climate Dyn., 13, 275-284.
Electronic version of manuscript available through this link.

Rogers, J. C., and E. -M. Thompson, 1995: Atlantic Arctic cyclones and the mild Siberian winters of the 1980s. Geophys. Res. Lett., 22, 799-802.

Electronic version of manuscript available through this link.

Seager, R., Y. Kushnir, M. Visbeck, N. Naik, J, Miller, G. Krahmann, and H. Cullen, 2000: Causes of Atlantic Ocean climate variability between 1958 and 1998. Journal of Climate, in press.

Shindell, D. T., R. L. Miller, G. Schmidt, and L. Pandolfo, 1999: Simulation of recent northern winter climate trends by greenhouse-gas forcing. Nature, 399, 452-455.

Solomon S, 1999: Stratospheric ozone depletion: A review of concepts and history Rev. Geophys., 37, 275-316.

Steinbrecht, W., H. Claude, and U. Kohler, 1998: Correlations between tropopause height and total ozone: Implication for long-term changes. J. Geophys. Res., 103, 19183-19192.

Stephenson DB, Pavan V, Bojariu R, 2000: Is the North Atlantic Oscillation a random walk? Int. J. Climatol., 20, 1-18.
Electronic version of manuscript available through this link.

Thompson, D. W. J, and J. M. Wallace, 1998: The Arctic Oscillation signature in the wintertime geopotential height and temperature fields. Geophys. Res. Lett., 25, 1297-1300.
Postscript file of the manuscript and color figures

Thompson, D. W. J., J. M. Wallace, and G. C. Hegerl, 2000: Annular modes in the extratropical circulation. Part II: Trends. J. Climate, 13, 1018-1036.
Electronic version of manuscript available through this link.

U. Ulbrich, M. Christoph, 1999: A shift of the NAO and increasing storm track activity over Europe due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing Climate Dyn., 15, 551-559.
Electronic version of manuscript available through this link.

Volodin E.M. and Galin V.Ya. Sensitivity of midlatitude Northern Hemisphere winter circulation to ozone depletion in the lower stratosphere. Russian Meteorology and Hydrology, 8, 23-32 (1998).

Walsh, J. E., W. L. Chapman and T. L. Shy, 1996: Recent decrease of sea level pressure in the central Arctic. J. Climate, 9, 480-486.
Electronic version of manuscript available through this link.

Walsh JE, Portis DH, 1999: Variations of precipitation and evaporation over the North Atlantic Ocean, 1958-1997 J. Geophys. Res., 104, 16613-16631.

Watanabe M, Nitta T, 1999: Decadal changes in the atmospheric circulation and associated surface climate variations in the Northern Hemisphere winter J. Climate, 12, 494-510.
Electronic version of manuscript available through this link.

Waugh, D. W., W. J. Randel, S. Pawson. P. A. Newman, and E. R. Nash, 1999: Persistence of the lower stratospheric polar vortices. J. Geophys. Res., 104, 27 191-27 202.

Waugh, D. W., and W. J. Randel, 1999: Climatology of the Arctic and Antarctic polar vortices using elliptical diagnostics. J. Atmos. Sci., 56, 1594-1613.
Electronic version of manuscript available through this link.

Xie SP, Noguchi H, Matsumura S, 1999: A hemispheric-scale quasi-decadal oscillation and its signature in Northern Japan J. Met. Soc. Japan, 77, 573-582.

Yi DR, Mysak LA, Venegas SA, 2000: Decadal-to-interdecadal fluctuations of Arctic sea-ice cover and the atmospheric circulation during 1954-1994 Atmos. Ocean, 37, 389-415.

Zhou, S., 1999. In: Proceedings from the American Meteorological Society 79th annual meeting. Dallas, TX.

Zhou, X., Geller, M., and M. Zhang, 2000: The cooling trend of the tropical cold point tropopause temperatures and its implications J. Geophys. Res., in press.
Electronic version of manuscript available through this link.