Proceedings | Participants
This workshop was arranged as a joint initiative of the Pan-American Climate Study (PACS) and the Global Energy Water-cycle Experiment Continental-scale International Project (GCIP) to foster better communication and coordination among scientists committed to improving climate prediction at the seasonal-to-interannual time scale. The workshop took place October 1-3, 1997 in Silver Spring, Maryland and was co-chaired by Professor W. James Shuttleworth (University of Arizona) and Dr. J. Shukla (Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies). Over 50 oceanographic, atmospheric and hydrologic scientists from academia and government (see Appendix) attended and participated in a lively and productive discussion.
The workshop focussed on modeling approaches of mutual interest to GCIP and PACS scientists. However, in practice, the breadth of expertise represented at the workshop resulted in a wide ranging discussion; consequently, its recommendations have broad, strategic significance for the US seasonal-to-interannual research program as a whole. The workshop addressed successively decreasing spatial scales: global, regional and watershed. A concluding session reviewed current and proposed model and data availability and programmatic and agency perspectives. Each session included several invited review talks by distinguished scientists followed by an extended period of discussion. The primary conclusions reached during each discussion session were summarized at its completion to establish consensus and the resulting list of workshop recommendations were again reviewed and, where appropriate, revised in a final discussion session.
As an introduction to the workshop, Dr. J. Shukla presented some recent results from several modeling groups demonstrating the improved ability of current-generation atmospheric GCMs to simulate seasonal mean atmospheric circulation anomalies over the Pacific-North America region given correctly specified sea surface temperatures (SST). The two major challenges for seasonal prediction over different regions of North America are 1) accurate prediction of SST anomalies, and 2) accurate downscaling to produce regional precipitation forecasts from GCM-predicted planetary scale flow patterns. It was pointed out that no quantitative estimates of predictability of regional climate have been determined by systematically investigating the amplification and propagation of errors when global coupled models are downscaled to regional and hydrology models. A possible framework for this downscaling is illustrated in Figure 1.
2. Workshop Recommendations
The recommendations of the workshop take three forms, (a) strategic decisions regarding the future of GCIP and PACS and the overall form of a proposed program of common interest, (b) more specific recommendations regarding priority tasks and hypotheses to be tested in that program, and (c) certain short-term actions that will foster the development of increased coordination.
2.1 Strategic Decisions
The workshop recognized that developing the ability to improve seasonal-to-interannual climate predictions within the North American continent requires that scientists involved in GCIP and PACS work together as equal partners in a coordinated US research program.
Within such a program, GCIP scientists would conduct research designed to improve understanding of interactions between the atmosphere and the land surface hydrologic system within North America; PACS scientists would conduct research designed to improve understanding of the interactions between the atmosphere and oceans in the Pan-American region. Bearing in mind the existing research commitments of both PACS and GCIP, and recognizing the need to better define the precise nature of their future collaborative research, the workshop participants recommended that implementation of this partnership begin in 1998 and that a common research agenda and integrated studies would be developed by FY2000. Steps toward these goals include participation in joint announcements of opportunity in selected areas of research, the creation of interface groups of scientists with common interests in PACS and GCIP, and the jointly coordinated provision of mutually valuable data to modelers in the two communities.
The workshop recognized that an integrated US seasonal-to-interannual climate research program should have two broadly defined research missions, namely (a) to test hypotheses accepted as being plausible and that have potential for improving prediction, and (b) to carry out exploratory investigations designed to formulate new hypotheses relevant to improved prediction at the seasonal-to-interannual time scale.
It was recognized that including these two aspects is necessary for the integrated program to make progress in the short term while retaining a capacity to evolve in scope and focus as understanding grows.
2.2 Priority Hypotheses to be Tested
Three hypotheses have initial priority in the new integrated research agenda; these hypotheses are outlined below. In addition to these three hypotheses, the workshop participants recognized that the current-generation global and regional climate models are unable to predict the distribution, in both space and time, of precipitation with the accuracy necessary for hydrological prediction. This is perhaps the greatest challenge facing an integrated PACS/GCIP research program.
A. Hypothesis: A link between the monsoon in northwest Mexico and summertime precipitation in the Great Plains of the United States may have predictive value at the seasonal timescale.
The following observations have been made of the North American climate:
-The North American warm season precipitation regime is characterized by an out of phase relationship between the Southwest and the Great Plains and an in phase relationship between the Southwest and the East Coast (Higgins et al. 1997).
-The onset date in Southwest Mexico is highly correlated with interannual fluctuations in rainfall over the entire monsoon region for up to 2 months after onset. (Higgins et al. 1998a)
-Wet (dry) monsoons in the Southwest often follow winters characterized by dry (wet) conditions in the Southwest and wet (dry) conditions in the Pacific Northwest (Higgins et al. 1998b)
The teleconnection responsible for these observations may develop over a time span of just a few days, as outflow related to strong monsoon activity causes atmospheric descent and drying over the Great Plains. In addition, the monsoon in Mexico appears to be modulated by ENSO. Specifically, a wet equatorial central Pacific (warm ENSO) is associated with dryness along the Pacific coast of southern and western Mexico. The mechanisms at work for these teleconnections must be investigated (refer to Section 2.3 for specific tasks related to this hypothesis). The importance of the Gulf of Mexico and the role of the large-scale circulation in controling this moisture source in the central and eastern US was also recognized.
B. Hypothesis: Regional hydrometeorological processes operating over continental surfaces have an influence on larger scale processes, and understanding this influence will improve predictive skill at the seasonal time scale. The proper initialization and prediction of the state of the land surface (i.e. the soil moisture, the snow cover, and the state of the vegetation) on seasonal scales could be essential for predicting the onset and variability of the tropical wet season and warm season precipitation anomalies in the extratropics.
The importance of land-surface anomalies in forecasting extratropical continental precipitation during the warm season has been highlighted by a number of modeling studies (Atlas et al, 1992, Betts et al, 1993, Fennessy and Shukla, 1998).
For example, ensemble forecasts for the summer of 1993 shown in Figure 2 confirm the importance of soil moisture (Figure 2 courtesy of Dr. Max Suarez). Two ensemble forecasts were made: ensembles using climatological soil moisture, and ensembles using observed estimates of soil moisture. The seasonal anomalies produced in these two sets of calculations can be compared with the observed anomalies. Similar results, but of opposite sign were obtained for the summer drought of 1988, and intermediate results for years with weak observed precipitation anomalies. The results demonstrate the importance of land surface processes and emphasize the need to realistically model the interactions between the land surface and the atmosphere and between regional and large-scale processes. Although the land-surface components of this model were specified, not predicted, the results demonstrate that seasonal-to-interannual predictions will be improved with improved representation and modeling of hydrometeorological processes.
C. Hypothesis: Improved climatological and hydrological forecasts are useful for water resource management.
The effectiveness of the decisions made by water managers depends critically on the capability to (1) predict the hydrologic response of watersheds and (2) fully utilize such forecasts within an integrated and flexible decision system and process.
The value of climatological and hydrological forecasts in water management can be assessed, to a certain extent, using computer models which replicate the decision process (forecast, control, simulation) and its effects. Consider, for example, the conclusions from Dr. Georgakakos' study designed to assess the relative differences in performance of the Folsom reservoir (in east-central California)under forecast scenarios of low, intermediate, and perfect skill. The conclusions of this study are summarized in Table 1. Folsom's performance is measured in accordance with three criteria: Flood damage in million dollars, annual energy generation revenue in million dollars, and annual spillage (i.e., water bypassing the turbines) in million cubic feet.
Water resources professionals must be educated on the capabilities and benefits of decision systems and processes into which climate forecasts have been integrated. Demonstration projects throughout the US would accomplish this goal.
Forecast Skill | Flood Damage (Million Dollars) |
Energy Value (Million Dollars) |
Annual Spillage (Million Cubic Feet) |
---|---|---|---|
Low | 5338 | 58.5 | 10834 |
Intermediate | 220 | 59.5 | 9501 |
Perfect | 0 | 61.3 | 6156 |
2.3 Priority Tasks to Define New Hypotheses
The workshop concluded that the priority tasks necessary to define new, plausible hypotheses of mutual interest to PACS and GCIP scientists are as follows
A. To address the hypotheses discussed in Section 3.2, data are needed. Specifically, data are needed to:
B. Diagnostic and case studies are necessary, and should involve both modeling and observations, to define new research hypotheses which have potential value for improving seasonal-to-interannual predictions within the USA
Diagnostic studies should be carried out to determine the source of moisture and precipitation over the USA in general, and the Mississippi basin in particular. The relative contributions of evapotranspiration (local water vapor source) and moisture flux convergence in determining the precipitation anomalies should also be calculated from observations. This will help in understanding the relative roles of local and remote processes in floods and droughts over the USA.
Modeling studies should be carried out to determine the limits of predictability of regional climate variations. Two types of modeling studies are suggested:
1. Case studies of individual flood and drought years with prescribed ocean temperature and/or prescribed evapotranspiration.
2. Nesting of global models and high resolution regional models to determine the predictability of regional precipitation given the uncertainty in the planetary scale flow.
3. Near Term Initiatives
The workshop recognized that certain near term initiatives would greatly facilitate the development of closer links between scientists involved in PACS and GCIP, as follows.
3.1 Creation of a Joint GCIP-PACS Modeling Group
The workshop participants recommended that a modeling group comprising PACS and GCIP scientists be created. This group would have the following initial goals.
(i) To foster research on predictability and variability of subseasonal to seasonal variations and atmosphere-ocean-land interactions
(ii) To stimulate improved parameterization of modeled processes, with emphasis on convective and land surface exchange processes, and with recognition of the importance of coupling processes and spatial scale on model parameterization.
(iii) To coordinate the provision of ensembles of seasonal (1-4 month) predictions of precipitation and the meteorological variables that control the evaporative demand of the atmosphere, and to facilitate the use of these in exploratory studies of water resource issues.
3.2 Provision of Relevant Data Sets
To stimulate the development of models relevant to the integrated GCIP-PACS program, it is recommended that in the near future freely-available oceanic and land data including ocean and land fluxes should be provided which is suitable for the initiation and validation of experimental seasonal-to-interannual predictions. Operational data for water resource management should also be included.
4. Timetable for Implementation
Following the workshop, discussions with NASA and NOAA program managers resulted in an agreement to implement the workshop recommendations using the timetable and milestones described below.
By Spring 1998:
Create a Joint GCIP-PACS Modeling Group
Initiate the definition and provision of coordinated data sets
Incorporate the intention to create an integrated NOAA-NASA seasonal-to-interannual prediction activity by FY2000 into the forward planning of the NOAA-PACS, NASA-SI, NOAA-GCIP, NASA-Hydrology research programs
By Spring 1999:
Joint NOAA-PACS, NASA-SI, NOAA-GCIP, NASA-Hydrology research announcement for proposals will be explored and implemented, budgets permitting.
By Spring 2000:
Joint NOAA-PACS, NASA-SI, NOAA-GCIP, NASA-Hydrology research announcement for proposals.
By spring 2001, and thereafter each year:
Joint NOAA-PACS, NASA-SI, NOAA-GCIP, NASA-Hydrology research announcements developed around a refined, integrated and evolving US seasonal-to-interannual research program which will be developed through joint workshops.
5. Speakers and Topics
The following speakers and chairpersons reviewed current scientific understanding in the four sessions.
5.1 Global Modeling
Gene Rasmusson:
Overview of North American Monsoon: Current Scientific Questions
Chet Ropelewski:
Global Surface Boundary Conditions and Seasonal Climate Anomalies Over North America
Roberto Mechoso:
Simulation of the annual cycle and seasonal variability of North American Climate. What is most needed to improve models' abilities to simulate seasonal variability?
Paul Dirmeyer:
Global and Regional models' abilities to simulate precipitation, soil wetness, surface temperature, and run-off.
Ed Sarachik:
Session Overview
5.2 Regional Modeling
John Horel:
An overview of the state-of-the-art results using regional models over North America.
Ken Mitchell:
Modeling results when the reanalysis data set is used as boundary conditions for the Eta model.
Anji Seth:
Results using the NCAR regional model.
Mark Fenessey:
Modeling results when GCM forcing is used as boundary conditions for the Eta model
Jan Paegle:
Session Overview
5.3 Hydrological Modeling
Randy Koster:
Soil moisture's influence on seasonal-to-interannual climate predictability.
Imke Durre:
Diurnal cycle of temperature over North America
Eric Wood:
Hydrological modeling as an interface between climate prediction and water resource management
Effi Foufoula-Georgiou:
Examples of downscaling: statistical approaches vs. coupled modeling
Aris Georgakakos:
Value of climate and hydrologic forecasting for water resource management
John Roads:
Session Overview
5.4 Resources and Perspectives on the nature of a joint PACS/GCIP initiative.
Lisa Goddard:
IRI approach to global and regional modeling
Steve Lord:
NCEP future plans in modeling and prediction over N. America
Max Suarez:
GSFC experimental seasonal-to-interannual prediction project.
Lee Larson:
Office of Hydrology, Advanced Hydrologic Prediction System
Paul Hauser:
NASA Data Assimilation Office
5.5 Programmatic Links:
Roberto Mechoso: VAMOS; J. Shukla: IRI network; Rick Lawford: GEWEX Hydrometeorology panel; John Leese: GCIP data sets; Mike Hall: OGP's plans for U.S. regional climate assessments
Atlas R., N. Wolfson, and J. Terry, 1993: The effect of SST and soil moisture anomalies on GLA model simulations of the 1988 U.S. summer drought. J. Climate, 6, 2034-2048.
Betts A. K., Ball J. H., Beljaars A. C. M., Miller M. J., Viterbo P. A., 1996: The land surface-atmosphere interaction: A review based on observational and global modeling perspectives. J. Geophys. Res., 101, 7209-7225.
Fennessy, M. J., and J. Shukla, 1998: Impact of initial soil wetness on seasonal atmospheric prediction. Submitted to J. Climate.
Higgins, R.W., Y. Yao and X. Wang, 1997: Influence of the North American monsoon system on the United States summer precipitation regime. J. Climate, 10, 2600-2622
_____, K.C. Mo and Y. Yao, 1998a: Interannual variability of the US summer precipitation regime, with emphasis on the Southwestern Monsoon. J. Climate, in press.
_____, Y. Chen and A. V. Douglas, 1998b: Interannual variability of the North American warm season precipitation regime. Submitted to J. Climate.
Schemm, J., S. Schubert, J. Terry, and S. Bloom, 1992: Estimates of monthly mean soil moisture for 1979-1989. NASA Technical Memorandum 104571, Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771, 260 pp.
Participants
Jim Arnold
Matt Barlow
Ernesto Hugo Berbery
Kenneth H. Bergman
Bill Capehart
Shuyi Chen
Keeley Costigan
Robert E. Davis
Paul A. Dirmeyer
Imke Durre
Steve Esbensen
Mike Fennessy
Efi Foufoula-Georgiou
Aris Peter Georgakakos
Lisa Goddard
Mike Hall
Wayne Higgins
John Horel
Paul R. Houser
Michael D. Kane, P.E.
Ben Kirtman
Randal Koster
Lee Larson
Rick Lawford
George Leavesley
John Leese
Dennis Lettenmaier
L. Ruby Leung
Xu Liang
Steve Lord
C. Roberto Mechoso
Todd Mitchell
Ken Mitchell
Sumant Nigam
Robert Oglesby
Steve Piotrowicz
Jan Paegle
Mike Patterson
Eugene M. Rasmusson
John Roads
Roxane Ronca
C. Ropelewski
Ed Sarachik
John C. Schaake
Anji Seth
J. Shukla
Jim Shuttleworth
Max Suarez
Juan B. Valdes
Prof Anandu D Vernekar
Julian X.L. Wang
Larry Winter, Ph.D.
Eric Wood
Lin Ying
(Since our invitation was open to all interested individuals, there may have been some people at the workshop not on this list)
Earth System Science Division, HR01/GHCC
NASA
Marshall Space Flight Center
977 Explorer Dr.
Huntsville, AL 35806
tel: 205-922-5722
FAX: 205-922-5723
email: jim.arnold@msfc.nasa.gov
3433 Space Sciences Building
University of Maryland
College Park, MD 20742 -2425
tel: 301-405-5351
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email: barlow@atmos.umd.edu
Department of Meteorology
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University of Maryland
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Land Surface Processes
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South Dakota School of Mines and Technology
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University of Miami
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email: schen@rsmas.miami.edu
Atmospheric and Climate Sciences Group Los Alamos National Laboratory
EES-8, Mail Stop D401
Los Alamos National Laboratory
Los Alamos, NM 87545
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Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory
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tel: (603) 646-4219
FAX: (603) 646-4397
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Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean
Box 354235
University of Washington
Seattle, WA 98195-4235
tel: 206 616-4304
email: imke@atmos.washington.edu
Oregon State University
College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences
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Corvallix, OR
97331-2209
tel: 541-737-5687
email: esbensen@oce.orst.edu
Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies
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Calverton, MD 20705
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Dept. of Civil Engineering
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University of Minnesota
Minneapolis, MN 55414
tel: (612) 627-4595
FAX: (612) 627-4609
email: efi@mykonos.safhl.umn.edu
Director, Georgia Water Resources Institute
Professor and Associate Chair, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering
Georgia Institute of Technology
Atlanta, Georgia 30332-0355
tel: (404) 894-2240
FAX: (404) 894-2677
email: ageorgak@ce.gatech.edu
Climate Research Division
Scripps Institute of Oceanography 0224, UCSD
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email: goddard@lagoa.ucsd.edu
NOAA/ OGP
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Department of Meteorology
U. Utah
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Salt Lake City, UT 84112
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FAX: 801-585-3681
email: jhorel@atmos.met.utah.edu
Hydrological Sciences Branch / Data Assimilation Office
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; Code 974;
Greenbelt, Maryland 20771
tel: (301)-286-7702
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WWW: http://horton.gsfc.nasa.gov
email: houser@horton.gsfc.nasa.gov
Water Resources Engineer
Riverside Technology, inc.
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Ft. Collins, CO 80525-9768
tel: (970) 484-7573
email: mdk@riverside.com
Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies
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tel: (301)595-7000
FAX: (301)595-9793
email: e-mail: kirtman@cola.iges.org
Hydrological Sciences Branch
Laboratory for Hydrospheric Processes
Code 974, NASA/GSFC
Greenbelt, MD 20771
tel: (301) 286-7061
email: randal.koster@gsfc.nasa.gov
Hydrology Research Lab.
NOAA/NWS/OH
SSMC2
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NOAA/ OGP
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USGS, WRD
Box 25046, MS 412, DFC
Denver, CO 80225
tel: 303-236-5026
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email: george@usgs.gov
NOAA/ OGP
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tel: 301-427-2089 ext. 43
FAX: 301-427-2073
email: leese@ogp.noaa.gov
Department of Civil Engineering
U. Washington
P.O. Box 7306
164 Wilcox Hall, FX-10
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tel: 206-543-2532
FAX: 206-685-3836
email: dennis@u.washington.edu
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
P.O. Box 999, K9-30,
Richland, WA 99352
tel: 509-372-6182
FAX: 509-372-6168
email: l_leung@pnl.gov
JCET, UMBC/NASA
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Climate and Radiation Branch, Code 913
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Office: Bldg. 22, Rm G48
tel: (301)286-5001
FAX: (301)286-1759
email: xliang@climate.gsfc.nasa.gov
Environmental modeling center
NOAA/NCEP
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tel: 301-763-8161
FAX: 301-763-8545
email: Stephen.Lord@noaa.gov
Professor
University of California, Los Angeles
Department of Atmospheric Sciences
7127 Math Sciences Building
405 Hilgard Avenue
Los Angeles, CA 90095-1565
(310) 825-3057
Fax: (310) 206-5219
email: mechoso@atmos.ucla.edu
Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean (JISAO)
4909 25th Ave NE, first floor
Seattle, WA 98115
or
University of Washington, Box 354235, Seattle, WA 98195-4235
tel: (206) 685-3786
FAX: (206) 685-3397
email: mitchell@atmos.washington.edu
Mesoscale Modeling Branch/Environmental Modeling Center (EMC)
National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)
NOAA/NWS Room 204
NOAA Science Center
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tel. 301-763-8000 , ext 7225
FAX: 301-763-8545
email: Kenneth.Mitchell@noaa.gov
University of Maryland
Department of Meteorology, Rm 3403
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tel: 301 405 5381
email: nigam@atmos.umd.edu
Dept. Earth & Atmospheric Sciences
Purdue University
West Lafayette IN 47907
tel: 765-494-9531 (ph)
FAX: 765-496-1210 (FAX:)
email: roglesby@eas.purdue.edu
Office of Atmospheric and Oceanic Research, PDC
1335 East-West Highway
Silver Spring, MD
20910
tel: 301-713-2465 x124
email: Steve.Piotrowicz@noaa.gov
Department of Meteorology
U. Utah
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tel: 801-581-7180
FAX: 801-581-3681
email: jnpaegle@atmos.met.utah.edu
NOAA/ OGP
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tel: 301-427-2089 ext. 12
FAX: 301-427-2073
email: patterson@ogp.noaa.gov
Department of Meteorology
University of Maryland
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tel: 301 405-5376
FAX: 301 314-9482
email: erasmu@atmos.umd.edu
Climate Research Division
Scripps Institute of Oceanography
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tel: 619-534-2099
FAX: 619-534-8561
email: jroads@ucsd.edu
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tel: 301-427-2089 ext. 507
FAX: 301-427-2073
email: ronca@ogp.noaa.gov
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tel: 301-763-8227
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email: wd52cr@sun1.wwb.noaa.gov
Atmospheric Sciences
University of Washington
Box 351640
Seattle, Wa 98195
tel: 206 543 6720
FAX: 206 685-3397
email: sarachik@atmos.washington.edu
Chief Scientist, Office of Hydrology
National Weather Service (W/OHx2)
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tel: (301) 713-1660
FAX: (301) 713-0963
email: John.Schaake @noaa.gov
Department of Atmospheric Sciences
The University of Arizona
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tel: 520/621-6840 msg: 520/621-8836
FAX: 520/621-6833
email: seth@stratus.atmo.arizona.edu
Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies
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suite 301
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tel: 301-595-7000
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email: shukla@cola.iges.org
Department of Hydrology and Water Resources
U. of Arizona
College of Engineering and Mines
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FAX: 520-621-1422
email: shuttle@hwr.arizona.edu
Climate and Radiation Branch
Laboratory for Atmospheres
Code 913, NASA/GSFC
Greenbelt, MD 20771
tel: (301) 286-7373
email: max.suarez@gsfc.nasa.gov
Department of Civil Engineering and Engineering Mechanics
The University of Arizona
Tucson AZ 85718
tel: (520)621-2266
FAX: (520)621-2550
email: jvaldes@engr.arizona.edu
Department of meteorology
University of Maryland
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email: adv@atmos.umd.edu
Climate Prediction center
NCEP/NWS/NOAA, W/NP52
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Geoanalysis Group Leader
Los Alamos National Laboratory
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Department of Civil Engineering
Princeton University
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tel: 609-258-4675
FAX: 609-258-1270
email: efwood@pucc.princeton.edu
UCAR visitor
Environmental Modeling Center
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
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tel: (301) 763-8056 ext 7248
email: wd22yl@sun1.wwb.noaa.gov
Zong-Liang Yang
Institute of Atmospheric Physics
Physics-Atmos Sci Bldg
P.O. Box 210081
University of Arizona
Tucson AZ 85721-0081
tel: (520) 621-6619
FAX: (520) 621-6833
WWW: http://www.atmo.arizona.edu/yang/yang.html
email: zly@stratus.atmo.arizona
Todd Mitchell (mitchell@atmos.washington.edu)
August 1998
PACS | GCIP