PACS | GCIP


Proceedings of Joint PACS-GCIP Modeling Workshop
1-3 October 1997, Silver Spring, Maryland



Proceedings | Participants



1. Introduction

This workshop was arranged as a joint initiative of the Pan-American Climate Study (PACS) and the Global Energy Water-cycle Experiment Continental-scale International Project (GCIP) to foster better communication and coordination among scientists committed to improving climate prediction at the seasonal-to-interannual time scale. The workshop took place October 1-3, 1997 in Silver Spring, Maryland and was co-chaired by Professor W. James Shuttleworth (University of Arizona) and Dr. J. Shukla (Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies). Over 50 oceanographic, atmospheric and hydrologic scientists from academia and government (see Appendix) attended and participated in a lively and productive discussion.

The workshop focussed on modeling approaches of mutual interest to GCIP and PACS scientists. However, in practice, the breadth of expertise represented at the workshop resulted in a wide ranging discussion; consequently, its recommendations have broad, strategic significance for the US seasonal-to-interannual research program as a whole. The workshop addressed successively decreasing spatial scales: global, regional and watershed. A concluding session reviewed current and proposed model and data availability and programmatic and agency perspectives. Each session included several invited review talks by distinguished scientists followed by an extended period of discussion. The primary conclusions reached during each discussion session were summarized at its completion to establish consensus and the resulting list of workshop recommendations were again reviewed and, where appropriate, revised in a final discussion session.

As an introduction to the workshop, Dr. J. Shukla presented some recent results from several modeling groups demonstrating the improved ability of current-generation atmospheric GCMs to simulate seasonal mean atmospheric circulation anomalies over the Pacific-North America region given correctly specified sea surface temperatures (SST). The two major challenges for seasonal prediction over different regions of North America are 1) accurate prediction of SST anomalies, and 2) accurate downscaling to produce regional precipitation forecasts from GCM-predicted planetary scale flow patterns. It was pointed out that no quantitative estimates of predictability of regional climate have been determined by systematically investigating the amplification and propagation of errors when global coupled models are downscaled to regional and hydrology models. A possible framework for this downscaling is illustrated in Figure 1.

Schematic image of 
downscaling of planetary-scale ocean-atmosphere model forecasts to socio-economic models for individual 
communities by a succession of finer spatial and temporal scale models
 
of the atmospheric circulation and hydrological cycle.

Figure 1




2. Workshop Recommendations

The recommendations of the workshop take three forms, (a) strategic decisions regarding the future of GCIP and PACS and the overall form of a proposed program of common interest, (b) more specific recommendations regarding priority tasks and hypotheses to be tested in that program, and (c) certain short-term actions that will foster the development of increased coordination.

2.1 Strategic Decisions

The workshop recognized that developing the ability to improve seasonal-to-interannual climate predictions within the North American continent requires that scientists involved in GCIP and PACS work together as equal partners in a coordinated US research program.

Within such a program, GCIP scientists would conduct research designed to improve understanding of interactions between the atmosphere and the land surface hydrologic system within North America; PACS scientists would conduct research designed to improve understanding of the interactions between the atmosphere and oceans in the Pan-American region. Bearing in mind the existing research commitments of both PACS and GCIP, and recognizing the need to better define the precise nature of their future collaborative research, the workshop participants recommended that implementation of this partnership begin in 1998 and that a common research agenda and integrated studies would be developed by FY2000. Steps toward these goals include participation in joint announcements of opportunity in selected areas of research, the creation of interface groups of scientists with common interests in PACS and GCIP, and the jointly coordinated provision of mutually valuable data to modelers in the two communities.

The workshop recognized that an integrated US seasonal-to-interannual climate research program should have two broadly defined research missions, namely (a) to test hypotheses accepted as being plausible and that have potential for improving prediction, and (b) to carry out exploratory investigations designed to formulate new hypotheses relevant to improved prediction at the seasonal-to-interannual time scale.

It was recognized that including these two aspects is necessary for the integrated program to make progress in the short term while retaining a capacity to evolve in scope and focus as understanding grows.

2.2 Priority Hypotheses to be Tested

Three hypotheses have initial priority in the new integrated research agenda; these hypotheses are outlined below. In addition to these three hypotheses, the workshop participants recognized that the current-generation global and regional climate models are unable to predict the distribution, in both space and time, of precipitation with the accuracy necessary for hydrological prediction. This is perhaps the greatest challenge facing an integrated PACS/GCIP research program.

A. Hypothesis: A link between the monsoon in northwest Mexico and summertime precipitation in the Great Plains of the United States may have predictive value at the seasonal timescale.
The following observations have been made of the North American climate: -The North American warm season precipitation regime is characterized by an out of phase relationship between the Southwest and the Great Plains and an in phase relationship between the Southwest and the East Coast (Higgins et al. 1997). -The onset date in Southwest Mexico is highly correlated with interannual fluctuations in rainfall over the entire monsoon region for up to 2 months after onset. (Higgins et al. 1998a) -Wet (dry) monsoons in the Southwest often follow winters characterized by dry (wet) conditions in the Southwest and wet (dry) conditions in the Pacific Northwest (Higgins et al. 1998b)

The teleconnection responsible for these observations may develop over a time span of just a few days, as outflow related to strong monsoon activity causes atmospheric descent and drying over the Great Plains. In addition, the monsoon in Mexico appears to be modulated by ENSO. Specifically, a wet equatorial central Pacific (warm ENSO) is associated with dryness along the Pacific coast of southern and western Mexico. The mechanisms at work for these teleconnections must be investigated (refer to Section 2.3 for specific tasks related to this hypothesis). The importance of the Gulf of Mexico and the role of the large-scale circulation in controling this moisture source in the central and eastern US was also recognized.

B. Hypothesis: Regional hydrometeorological processes operating over continental surfaces have an influence on larger scale processes, and understanding this influence will improve predictive skill at the seasonal time scale. The proper initialization and prediction of the state of the land surface (i.e. the soil moisture, the snow cover, and the state of the vegetation) on seasonal scales could be essential for predicting the onset and variability of the tropical wet season and warm season precipitation anomalies in the extratropics.

The importance of land-surface anomalies in forecasting extratropical continental precipitation during the warm season has been highlighted by a number of modeling studies (Atlas et al, 1992, Betts et al, 1993, Fennessy and Shukla, 1998).

For example, ensemble forecasts for the summer of 1993 shown in Figure 2 confirm the importance of soil moisture (Figure 2 courtesy of Dr. Max Suarez). Two ensemble forecasts were made: ensembles using climatological soil moisture, and ensembles using observed estimates of soil moisture. The seasonal anomalies produced in these two sets of calculations can be compared with the observed anomalies. Similar results, but of opposite sign were obtained for the summer drought of 1988, and intermediate results for years with weak observed precipitation anomalies. The results demonstrate the importance of land surface processes and emphasize the need to realistically model the interactions between the land surface and the atmosphere and between regional and large-scale processes. Although the land-surface components of this model were specified, not predicted, the results demonstrate that seasonal-to-interannual predictions will be improved with improved representation and modeling of hydrometeorological processes.

Image 
showing influence of soil moisture anomalies in forecasts of the 
summer 1993 atmospheric circulation over the contiguous United States.
Figure 2




C. Hypothesis: Improved climatological and hydrological forecasts are useful for water resource management.

The effectiveness of the decisions made by water managers depends critically on the capability to (1) predict the hydrologic response of watersheds and (2) fully utilize such forecasts within an integrated and flexible decision system and process.

The value of climatological and hydrological forecasts in water management can be assessed, to a certain extent, using computer models which replicate the decision process (forecast, control, simulation) and its effects. Consider, for example, the conclusions from Dr. Georgakakos' study designed to assess the relative differences in performance of the Folsom reservoir (in east-central California)under forecast scenarios of low, intermediate, and perfect skill. The conclusions of this study are summarized in Table 1. Folsom's performance is measured in accordance with three criteria: Flood damage in million dollars, annual energy generation revenue in million dollars, and annual spillage (i.e., water bypassing the turbines) in million cubic feet.

Water resources professionals must be educated on the capabilities and benefits of decision systems and processes into which climate forecasts have been integrated. Demonstration projects throughout the US would accomplish this goal.


Table 1: Folsom Simulation Statistics for a 60-day forecast lead time
Forecast Skill Flood Damage
(Million Dollars)
Energy Value
(Million Dollars)
Annual Spillage
(Million Cubic Feet)
Low 5338 58.5 10834
Intermediate 220 59.5 9501
Perfect 0 61.3 6156


2.3 Priority Tasks to Define New Hypotheses

The workshop concluded that the priority tasks necessary to define new, plausible hypotheses of mutual interest to PACS and GCIP scientists are as follows

A. To address the hypotheses discussed in Section 3.2, data are needed. Specifically, data are needed to:

  • determine how well global-scale and regional-scale models reproduce the observations detailed in Section 3.2.A.
  • explore the relative roles of internal atmospheric dynamics, remote boundary forcing (e.g. sea surface temperature), local and regional forcing.
  • explore the regional differences in the relative importance of the forcing mechanisms.
  • explore interannual to intraseasonal variability in the observations and forcing mechanisms.
  • explore to what extent tropical intraseasonal to interannual variability (Madden-Julian Oscillation, El Niņo) affects these observed patterns.
  • explore if the relationship between summer monsoon precipitation over the PACS domain and precipitation in other regions has predictive value

    B. Diagnostic and case studies are necessary, and should involve both modeling and observations, to define new research hypotheses which have potential value for improving seasonal-to-interannual predictions within the USA

    Diagnostic studies should be carried out to determine the source of moisture and precipitation over the USA in general, and the Mississippi basin in particular. The relative contributions of evapotranspiration (local water vapor source) and moisture flux convergence in determining the precipitation anomalies should also be calculated from observations. This will help in understanding the relative roles of local and remote processes in floods and droughts over the USA.

    Modeling studies should be carried out to determine the limits of predictability of regional climate variations. Two types of modeling studies are suggested:
    1. Case studies of individual flood and drought years with prescribed ocean temperature and/or prescribed evapotranspiration.
    2. Nesting of global models and high resolution regional models to determine the predictability of regional precipitation given the uncertainty in the planetary scale flow.

    3. Near Term Initiatives

    The workshop recognized that certain near term initiatives would greatly facilitate the development of closer links between scientists involved in PACS and GCIP, as follows.

    3.1 Creation of a Joint GCIP-PACS Modeling Group

    The workshop participants recommended that a modeling group comprising PACS and GCIP scientists be created. This group would have the following initial goals.
    (i) To foster research on predictability and variability of subseasonal to seasonal variations and atmosphere-ocean-land interactions
    (ii) To stimulate improved parameterization of modeled processes, with emphasis on convective and land surface exchange processes, and with recognition of the importance of coupling processes and spatial scale on model parameterization.
    (iii) To coordinate the provision of ensembles of seasonal (1-4 month) predictions of precipitation and the meteorological variables that control the evaporative demand of the atmosphere, and to facilitate the use of these in exploratory studies of water resource issues.

    3.2 Provision of Relevant Data Sets

    To stimulate the development of models relevant to the integrated GCIP-PACS program, it is recommended that in the near future freely-available oceanic and land data including ocean and land fluxes should be provided which is suitable for the initiation and validation of experimental seasonal-to-interannual predictions. Operational data for water resource management should also be included.

    4. Timetable for Implementation

    Following the workshop, discussions with NASA and NOAA program managers resulted in an agreement to implement the workshop recommendations using the timetable and milestones described below.

    By Spring 1998:

    Create a Joint GCIP-PACS Modeling Group

    Initiate the definition and provision of coordinated data sets

    Incorporate the intention to create an integrated NOAA-NASA seasonal-to-interannual prediction activity by FY2000 into the forward planning of the NOAA-PACS, NASA-SI, NOAA-GCIP, NASA-Hydrology research programs

    By Spring 1999:

    Joint NOAA-PACS, NASA-SI, NOAA-GCIP, NASA-Hydrology research announcement for proposals will be explored and implemented, budgets permitting.

    By Spring 2000:

    Joint NOAA-PACS, NASA-SI, NOAA-GCIP, NASA-Hydrology research announcement for proposals.

    By spring 2001, and thereafter each year:

    Joint NOAA-PACS, NASA-SI, NOAA-GCIP, NASA-Hydrology research announcements developed around a refined, integrated and evolving US seasonal-to-interannual research program which will be developed through joint workshops.

    5. Speakers and Topics

    The following speakers and chairpersons reviewed current scientific understanding in the four sessions.

    5.1 Global Modeling

    Gene Rasmusson:
    Overview of North American Monsoon: Current Scientific Questions
    Chet Ropelewski:
    Global Surface Boundary Conditions and Seasonal Climate Anomalies Over North America
    Roberto Mechoso:
    Simulation of the annual cycle and seasonal variability of North American Climate. What is most needed to improve models' abilities to simulate seasonal variability?
    Paul Dirmeyer:
    Global and Regional models' abilities to simulate precipitation, soil wetness, surface temperature, and run-off.
    Ed Sarachik:
    Session Overview

    5.2 Regional Modeling
    John Horel:
    An overview of the state-of-the-art results using regional models over North America.
    Ken Mitchell:
    Modeling results when the reanalysis data set is used as boundary conditions for the Eta model.
    Anji Seth:
    Results using the NCAR regional model.
    Mark Fenessey:
    Modeling results when GCM forcing is used as boundary conditions for the Eta model
    Jan Paegle:
    Session Overview

    5.3 Hydrological Modeling

    Randy Koster:
    Soil moisture's influence on seasonal-to-interannual climate predictability.
    Imke Durre:
    Diurnal cycle of temperature over North America
    Eric Wood:
    Hydrological modeling as an interface between climate prediction and water resource management
    Effi Foufoula-Georgiou:
    Examples of downscaling: statistical approaches vs. coupled modeling
    Aris Georgakakos:
    Value of climate and hydrologic forecasting for water resource management
    John Roads:
    Session Overview

    5.4 Resources and Perspectives on the nature of a joint PACS/GCIP initiative.

    Lisa Goddard:
    IRI approach to global and regional modeling
    Steve Lord:
    NCEP future plans in modeling and prediction over N. America
    Max Suarez:
    GSFC experimental seasonal-to-interannual prediction project.
    Lee Larson:
    Office of Hydrology, Advanced Hydrologic Prediction System
    Paul Hauser:
    NASA Data Assimilation Office

    5.5 Programmatic Links:

    Roberto Mechoso: VAMOS; J. Shukla: IRI network; Rick Lawford: GEWEX Hydrometeorology panel; John Leese: GCIP data sets; Mike Hall: OGP's plans for U.S. regional climate assessments

    
    
    
    
    REFERENCES

    Atlas R., N. Wolfson, and J. Terry, 1993: The effect of SST and soil moisture anomalies on GLA model simulations of the 1988 U.S. summer drought. J. Climate, 6, 2034-2048.

    Betts A. K., Ball J. H., Beljaars A. C. M., Miller M. J., Viterbo P. A., 1996: The land surface-atmosphere interaction: A review based on observational and global modeling perspectives. J. Geophys. Res., 101, 7209-7225.

    Fennessy, M. J., and J. Shukla, 1998: Impact of initial soil wetness on seasonal atmospheric prediction. Submitted to J. Climate.

    Higgins, R.W., Y. Yao and X. Wang, 1997: Influence of the North American monsoon system on the United States summer precipitation regime. J. Climate, 10, 2600-2622

    _____, K.C. Mo and Y. Yao, 1998a: Interannual variability of the US summer precipitation regime, with emphasis on the Southwestern Monsoon. J. Climate, in press.

    _____, Y. Chen and A. V. Douglas, 1998b: Interannual variability of the North American warm season precipitation regime. Submitted to J. Climate.

    Schemm, J., S. Schubert, J. Terry, and S. Bloom, 1992: Estimates of monthly mean soil moisture for 1979-1989. NASA Technical Memorandum 104571, Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771, 260 pp.

    
    
    
    
    
    APPENDIX

    Participants
    (Since our invitation was open to all interested individuals, there may have been some people at the workshop not on this list)

    Jim Arnold
    Earth System Science Division, HR01/GHCC
    NASA
    Marshall Space Flight Center
    977 Explorer Dr.
    Huntsville, AL 35806
    tel: 205-922-5722
    FAX: 205-922-5723
    email: jim.arnold@msfc.nasa.gov

    Matt Barlow
    3433 Space Sciences Building
    University of Maryland
    College Park, MD 20742 -2425
    tel: 301-405-5351
    FAX: 301-405-9482
    email: barlow@atmos.umd.edu

    Ernesto Hugo Berbery
    Department of Meteorology
    3411 Computer and Space Sciences Building
    University of Maryland
    College Park, MD 20742
    tel: 301 405 5351
    FAX: 301 314 9482
    email: berbery@atmos.umd.edu

    Kenneth H. Bergman
    Global Modeling & Analysis Program
    Office of Mission to Planet Earth
    NASA Headquarters, Code YS
    300 E Street SW
    Washington DC 20546
    tel: 202-358-0765
    FAX: 202-358-2770
    email: kbergman@hq.nasa.gov
    email: kenneth.bergman@hq.nasa.gov

    Bill Capehart
    Land Surface Processes
    Institute of Atmospheric Sciences
    South Dakota School of Mines and Technology
    Rapid City, SD 57701-3995
    tel: 605-394-1994
    FAX: 605-394-6061
    email: wjc@ias.sdsmt.edu

    Shuyi Chen
    University of Miami
    4600 Rickenbacker Causeway
    Miami, FL 33149-1098
    tel: 305-361-1098
    FAX: 305-361-4696
    email: schen@rsmas.miami.edu

    Keeley Costigan
    Atmospheric and Climate Sciences Group Los Alamos National Laboratory
    EES-8, Mail Stop D401
    Los Alamos National Laboratory
    Los Alamos, NM 87545
    tel: (505) 665-4788
    email: krc@lanl.gov

    Robert E. Davis
    US Army Corps of Engineers
    Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory
    72 Lyme Road, Hanover NH 03755
    tel: (603) 646-4219
    FAX: (603) 646-4397
    email: bert@hanover-crrel.army.mil

    Paul A. Dirmeyer
    Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies
    4041 Powder Mill Road, Suite 302
    Calverton, Maryland 20705-3106
    tel: (301) 902-1254
    FAX: (301) 595-9793
    WWW: http://grads.iges.org/
    email: dirmeyer@cola.iges.org

    Imke Durre
    Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean
    Box 354235
    University of Washington
    Seattle, WA 98195-4235
    tel: 206 616-4304
    email: imke@atmos.washington.edu

    Steve Esbensen
    Oregon State University
    College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences
    104 Ocean Adm Bldg.
    Corvallix, OR
    97331-2209
    tel: 541-737-5687
    email: esbensen@oce.orst.edu

    Mike Fennessy
    Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies
    4041 Powder Mill Rd
    Suite 302
    Calverton, MD 20705
    tel: 301-902-1252
    email: fen@cola.iges.org

    Efi Foufoula-Georgiou
    St. Anthony Falls Laboratory
    Dept. of Civil Engineering
    Mississippi River and 3rd Ave. SE
    University of Minnesota
    Minneapolis, MN 55414
    tel: (612) 627-4595
    FAX: (612) 627-4609
    email: efi@mykonos.safhl.umn.edu

    Aris Peter Georgakakos
    Director, Georgia Water Resources Institute
    Professor and Associate Chair, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering
    Georgia Institute of Technology
    Atlanta, Georgia 30332-0355
    tel: (404) 894-2240
    FAX: (404) 894-2677
    email: ageorgak@ce.gatech.edu

    Lisa Goddard
    Climate Research Division
    Scripps Institute of Oceanography 0224, UCSD
    La Jolla, CA 92093-0224
    tel: 619-534-8087
    FAX: 619-534-8561
    email: goddard@lagoa.ucsd.edu

    Mike Hall
    NOAA/ OGP
    1100 Wayne Ave, Suite 1210
    Silver Spring, MD 20910-5603
    tel: 301-427-2089
    FAX: 301-427-2073
    email: hall@ogp.noaa.gov

    Wayne Higgins
    Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
    5200 Auth Rd. Room 605
    Camp Springs, MD 20746 USA
    Phone: (301) 763-8000 (ext 7547)
    FAX : (301) 763-8395
    email: wd52wh@sgi85.wwb.noaa.gov

    John Horel
    Department of Meteorology
    U. Utah
    819 William Browning Bldg
    Salt Lake City, UT 84112
    tel: 801-581-7091
    FAX: 801-585-3681
    email: jhorel@atmos.met.utah.edu

    Paul R. Houser
    Hydrological Sciences Branch / Data Assimilation Office
    NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; Code 974;
    Greenbelt, Maryland 20771
    tel: (301)-286-7702
    FAX: (301)-286-1758
    WWW: http://horton.gsfc.nasa.gov
    email: houser@horton.gsfc.nasa.gov

    Michael D. Kane, P.E.
    Water Resources Engineer
    Riverside Technology, inc.
    2290 E. Prospect Road, Suite 1
    Ft. Collins, CO 80525-9768
    tel: (970) 484-7573
    email: mdk@riverside.com

    Ben Kirtman
    Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies
    4041 Powder Mill Road, Suite 302
    Calverton, MD 20705
    tel: (301)595-7000
    FAX: (301)595-9793
    email: e-mail: kirtman@cola.iges.org

    Randal Koster
    Hydrological Sciences Branch
    Laboratory for Hydrospheric Processes
    Code 974, NASA/GSFC
    Greenbelt, MD 20771
    tel: (301) 286-7061
    email: randal.koster@gsfc.nasa.gov

    Lee Larson
    Hydrology Research Lab.
    NOAA/NWS/OH
    SSMC2
    1325 E-W Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    tel: 301-713-0640
    FAX: 301-713-0963
    email: lee.larson@noaa.gov

    Rick Lawford
    NOAA/ OGP
    1100 Wayne Ave, Suite 1210
    Silver Spring, MD 20910-5603
    tel: 301-427-2089 ext. 40
    FAX: 301-427-2073
    email: lawford@ogp.noaa.gov

    George Leavesley
    USGS, WRD
    Box 25046, MS 412, DFC
    Denver, CO 80225
    tel: 303-236-5026
    FAX: 303-236-5034
    email: george@usgs.gov

    John Leese
    NOAA/ OGP
    1100 Wayne Ave, Suite 1210
    Silver Spring, MD 20910-5603
    tel: 301-427-2089 ext. 43
    FAX: 301-427-2073
    email: leese@ogp.noaa.gov

    Dennis Lettenmaier
    Department of Civil Engineering
    U. Washington
    P.O. Box 7306
    164 Wilcox Hall, FX-10
    Seattle, WA 98195
    tel: 206-543-2532
    FAX: 206-685-3836
    email: dennis@u.washington.edu

    L. Ruby Leung
    Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
    P.O. Box 999, K9-30,
    Richland, WA 99352
    tel: 509-372-6182
    FAX: 509-372-6168
    email: l_leung@pnl.gov

    Xu Liang
    JCET, UMBC/NASA
    NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
    Climate and Radiation Branch, Code 913
    Greenbelt, MD 20771
    Office: Bldg. 22, Rm G48
    tel: (301)286-5001
    FAX: (301)286-1759
    email: xliang@climate.gsfc.nasa.gov

    Steve Lord
    Environmental modeling center
    NOAA/NCEP
    5200 Auth Rd.
    Washington DC 20233
    tel: 301-763-8161
    FAX: 301-763-8545
    email: Stephen.Lord@noaa.gov

    C. Roberto Mechoso
    Professor
    University of California, Los Angeles
    Department of Atmospheric Sciences
    7127 Math Sciences Building
    405 Hilgard Avenue
    Los Angeles, CA 90095-1565
    (310) 825-3057
    Fax: (310) 206-5219
    email: mechoso@atmos.ucla.edu

    Todd Mitchell
    Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean (JISAO)
    4909 25th Ave NE, first floor
    Seattle, WA 98115
    or
    University of Washington, Box 354235, Seattle, WA 98195-4235
    tel: (206) 685-3786
    FAX: (206) 685-3397
    email: mitchell@atmos.washington.edu

    Ken Mitchell
    Mesoscale Modeling Branch/Environmental Modeling Center (EMC)
    National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)
    NOAA/NWS Room 204
    NOAA Science Center
    5200 Auth Rd
    Camp Springs, MD 20746
    tel. 301-763-8000 , ext 7225
    FAX: 301-763-8545
    email: Kenneth.Mitchell@noaa.gov

    Sumant Nigam
    University of Maryland
    Department of Meteorology, Rm 3403
    College Park, MD 20742-2425
    tel: 301 405 5381
    email: nigam@atmos.umd.edu

    Robert Oglesby
    Dept. Earth & Atmospheric Sciences
    Purdue University
    West Lafayette IN 47907
    tel: 765-494-9531 (ph)
    FAX: 765-496-1210 (FAX:)
    email: roglesby@eas.purdue.edu

    Steve Piotrowicz
    Office of Atmospheric and Oceanic Research, PDC
    1335 East-West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD
    20910
    tel: 301-713-2465 x124
    email: Steve.Piotrowicz@noaa.gov

    Jan Paegle
    Department of Meteorology
    U. Utah
    819 William Browning Bldg
    Salt Lake City, UT 84112
    tel: 801-581-7180
    FAX: 801-581-3681
    email: jnpaegle@atmos.met.utah.edu

    Mike Patterson
    NOAA/ OGP
    1100 Wayne Ave, Suite 1210
    Silver Spring, MD 20910-5603
    tel: 301-427-2089 ext. 12
    FAX: 301-427-2073
    email: patterson@ogp.noaa.gov

    Eugene M. Rasmusson
    Department of Meteorology
    University of Maryland
    College Park, Maryland 20742
    tel: 301 405-5376
    FAX: 301 314-9482
    email: erasmu@atmos.umd.edu

    John Roads
    Climate Research Division
    Scripps Institute of Oceanography
    A-024
    9500 Gilman Dr.
    La Jolla, CA 92093-0224
    tel: 619-534-2099
    FAX: 619-534-8561
    email: jroads@ucsd.edu

    Roxane Ronca
    NOAA/ OGP
    1100 Wayne Ave, Suite 1210
    Silver Spring, MD 20910-5603
    tel: 301-427-2089 ext. 507
    FAX: 301-427-2073
    email: ronca@ogp.noaa.gov

    C. Ropelewski
    NOAA/NWS/NMC
    World Weather Building, Rm 605
    Camp Springs, MD 20746-4304
    tel: 301-763-8227
    FAX: 301-763-8395
    email: wd52cr@sun1.wwb.noaa.gov

    Ed Sarachik
    Atmospheric Sciences
    University of Washington
    Box 351640
    Seattle, Wa 98195
    tel: 206 543 6720
    FAX: 206 685-3397
    email: sarachik@atmos.washington.edu

    John C. Schaake
    Chief Scientist, Office of Hydrology
    National Weather Service (W/OHx2)
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    tel: (301) 713-1660
    FAX: (301) 713-0963
    email: John.Schaake @noaa.gov

    Anji Seth
    Department of Atmospheric Sciences
    The University of Arizona
    1118 E. 4th Street, PO Box 210081
    Tucson, AZ 85721-0081
    tel: 520/621-6840 msg: 520/621-8836
    FAX: 520/621-6833
    email: seth@stratus.atmo.arizona.edu

    J. Shukla
    Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies
    4041 Powder Mill Rd.
    suite 301
    Calverton , MD 20705-3106
    tel: 301-595-7000
    FAX: 301-595-9793
    email: shukla@cola.iges.org

    Jim Shuttleworth
    Department of Hydrology and Water Resources
    U. of Arizona
    College of Engineering and Mines
    Harshbarger bldg 11
    Tuscon, AZ 85721
    tel: 520-621-8787
    FAX: 520-621-1422
    email: shuttle@hwr.arizona.edu

    Max Suarez
    Climate and Radiation Branch
    Laboratory for Atmospheres
    Code 913, NASA/GSFC
    Greenbelt, MD 20771
    tel: (301) 286-7373
    email: max.suarez@gsfc.nasa.gov

    Juan B. Valdes
    Department of Civil Engineering and Engineering Mechanics
    The University of Arizona
    Tucson AZ 85718
    tel: (520)621-2266
    FAX: (520)621-2550
    email: jvaldes@engr.arizona.edu

    Prof Anandu D Vernekar
    Department of meteorology
    University of Maryland
    College Park, Maryland
    20742
    tel: 301 405 5385
    FAX: 301 314 9842
    email: adv@atmos.umd.edu

    Julian X.L. Wang
    Climate Prediction center
    NCEP/NWS/NOAA, W/NP52
    Rm 605A, WWB
    5200 Auth Road
    Camp Spring, MD 20746
    tel: (301)763-8000 ext. 7548
    FAX: (301)763-8395
    email: wd52xw@sun1.wwb.noaa.gov

    Larry Winter, Ph.D.
    Geoanalysis Group Leader
    Los Alamos National Laboratory
    Mail Stop F665
    Los Alamos, New Mexico 87545
    tel: (505) 667-6384
    FAX: (505) 665-3687
    email: winter@vega.lanl.gov

    Eric Wood
    Department of Civil Engineering
    Princeton University
    Olden St. ,
    Princeton, NJ 08544
    tel: 609-258-4675
    FAX: 609-258-1270
    email: efwood@pucc.princeton.edu

    Lin Ying
    UCAR visitor
    Environmental Modeling Center
    National Centers for Environmental Prediction
    5200 Auth Rd, Rm 207
    Camp Springs, MD 20746
    tel: (301) 763-8056 ext 7248
    email: wd22yl@sun1.wwb.noaa.gov


    Zong-Liang Yang
    Institute of Atmospheric Physics
    Physics-Atmos Sci Bldg
    P.O. Box 210081
    University of Arizona
    Tucson AZ 85721-0081
    tel: (520) 621-6619
    FAX: (520) 621-6833
    WWW: http://www.atmo.arizona.edu/yang/yang.html
    email: zly@stratus.atmo.arizona

    
    
    

    Todd Mitchell (mitchell@atmos.washington.edu)
    August 1998
    PACS | GCIP