W1a

Introduction to Integrated Assessment

Rhythms of Change, Chapter 1: The Integrated Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on the Pacific Northwest: by A. K. Snover and E. L. Miles.

Kaje, J. 1999. "Kaje System: A conceptual modeling tool for interdisciplinary research."

W1b

Pacific Northwest climate: Past, present and future

Rhythms of Change, Chapter 2: The Underlying Rhythms: Patterns of Pacific Northwest Climate Variability, by N. J. Mantua, P.W. Mote.

IPCC Working Group I. 2001. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis (Summary for Policymakers). Working Group I contribution to the Third Assessment Report.

Rhythms of Change, Chapter 3: A new tune: Possible future climate, by P. Mote, A. Hamlet, and R. Leung.

Background material (optional):

Zebiak, S. 1999. El Niño and the science of climate prediction. Consequences 5(2).

Lippsett, L. 2000. Beyond El Niño. Scientific American 11(1):77-83.

W2a

Preparing for anthropogenic climate change

Wallace, J. M. 2000. What science can and cannot tell us about global warming. BRIDGES - An Interdisciplinary Journal of Theology, Philosophy, History and Science 7(1/2):1-15.

Sarewitz, D. and R. Pielke, Jr. 2000. Breaking the global warming gridlock. Atlantic Monthly July:55-64.

Dotto, L. 2000. Proof or Consequences. Alternatives Journal 26(2):8-14.

W2b

Using climate forecasts

Sarachik, E. 1999. The Application of Climate Information. Consequences 5(2).

Nicholls, N. 1999. Cognitive Illusions, Heuristics, and Climate Prediction. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 80(7):1385-1398.

National Research Council. 1999. Summary, in Making Climate Forecasts Matter. National Academy Press: Washington, D.C.

Broad, K., A. S. P. Pfaff, and M. H. Glantz. 2000. Effective and equitable dissemination of seasonal-to-interannual climate forecasts: Policy implications from the Peruvian fishery during El Niño 1997-98. Climatic Change (submitted, August).

Changnon, S. 1999. Impacts of the 1997-98 El Niño generated weather in the United States. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 80(9): 1819-1827.

Background material (optional):

Kahneman, D. and A. Tversky 1982. The psychology of preferences. Scientific American January: 136-142.

Slovic, P. 1987. Perception of risk. Science 236:280-285.

Tversky, A. and D. Kahneman 1974. Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Science 185:1124-1131.

W3a

Climate impacts on PNW salmon

Rhythms of Change, Chapter 5: PNW salmon and climate: A case of discordant harmony, by N. J. Mantua, R.C. Francis, and P. W. Mote.

Rhythms of Change, Chapter 8 (sections 8.3 and 8.4.2): Incorporating Climate Forecasts in Management Decision Processes, by D. Huppert, J. Kaje, A. F. Hamlet, B. Callahan, D. Fluharty, Z. Johnson, N. Mantua, E. L. Miles, and A. K. Snover.

W3b

Sustainability & Fisheries management

Levin, S. A. 1993. Forum: Science and sustainability. Ecological Applications 3(4).

Ludwig, D., R. Hilborn, and C. Walters. 1993. Uncertainty, resource exploitation, and conservation: Lessons from history. Ecological Applications 3(4): 547-549.

Holling, C. S. 1993. Investing in research for sustainability. Ecological Applications 3(4): 552-555.

Francis, R. C. 2001. "Sustainability and marine conservation - setting the table". Presentation for the Bevan series on Sustainable Fisheries, University of Washington, January 4.

Francis, R. C. 2001. "A web of small tensions." Unpublished essay.

W4a

Institutions of water management

Frederick, K. D. 1995. America's Water Supply: Status and Prospects for the Future. Consequences 1(1).

Leagues of Women Voters of Seattle, Lake Washington East and King County South. 1995. Washington State Water Rights Study Update. November.

Background material (optional): Good sites for Washington state water law information:

• http://www.ecy.wa.gov/programs/wr/plan/munihome.html
• http://www.ecy.wa.gov/programs/wr/rights/wrs-home.html
• http://www.ecy.wa.gov/programs/wr/rules/rul-home.html

For your interest:

Reisner, M. 1993 (1986). Cadillac Desert: The American West and its disappearing water.

W4b

Water in the west

Rogers, P. 1993. Chapter 3: History of water policy in the United States, pp. 45-73. In America's Water: Federal Roles and Responsibilities. Cambridge, Massachusetts: MIT Press.

Major, D. C. and K. D. Frederick. 1997. Water resources planning and climate change assessment methods. Climatic Change 37:25-40. [also contained in: Climate change and Water Resources Planning Criteria, K. D. Frederick, D. C. Major, and E. Z. Stakhiv (eds.). Dordrect: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1997.]

Background material (optional):

Frederick, K. D. and D. C. Major. 1997. Climate change and water resources. Climatic Change 37:7-23. [also contained in: Climate change and Water Resources Planning Criteria, K. D. Frederick, D. C. Major, and E. Z. Stakhiv (eds.). Dordrect: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1997.]

Lettenmaier, D.P., A.W. Wood, R.N. Palmer, E. Wood, and E.Z. Stakhiv. 1999. Water Resources Implications of Global Warming: A U.S. Regional Perspective. Climate Change 43:537-579.

W5a

Climate impacts on PNW water resources

Miles, E. L., A. K. Snover, A. Hamlet, B. Callahan, and D. Fluharty. 2000. Pacific Northwest regional assessment: The impacts of climate variability and climate change on the water resources of the Columbia River Basin. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 36(2):399-420.

Glantz, M. H. 1982. Consequences and responsibilities in drought forecasting: The case of Yakima, 1977. Water Resources Research 18(1):3-13.

Cohen, S. J., K. Miller, A. F. Hamlet, and W. Avis. 1999. Climate change and resource management in the Columbia River Basin. Water International 25(2):253-272.

Background material (optional):

Rhythms of Change, Chapter 4: Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on Water Resources, by A. F. Hamlet, P. Mote, A. K. Snover.

W5b

Water in the Columbia basin: Past and future conflicts

Rhythms of Change, Chapter 8 (SECTION 8.4.1 (hydropower case study)): Incorporating Climate Forecasts in Management Decision Processes, by D. Huppert, J. Kaje, A. F. Hamlet, B. Callahan, D. Fluharty, Z. Johnson, N. Mantua, E. L. Miles, and A. K. Snover.

Hamlet, A. F. 2001. The Role of Transboundary Agreements in the Columbia River Basin: An Integrated Assessment in the Context of Historic Development, Climate, and Evolving Water Policy. In Climate and Water Resources in Transboundary Regions (working manuscript title), E. Diaz (ed.) (in press).

Mapes, L. V. 2001. "Head-on clash over salmon and power." Seattle Times. Seattle, Washington, February 15.

Mapes, L. V. 2001. "Water woes to force closure of taps at Baker River dam." Seattle Times. Seattle, Washington, February 24.

Lewis, M. and M. Leff 2001. "Fear runs deep as farms dry up." Seattle Post-Intelligencer. Seattle, Washington, April 18.

Hall, L. 2001. "Agency sued over putting hydropower ahead of fish." Seattle Post-Intelligencer. Seattle, Washington, May 4.

Barnard, J. 2001. "Farmers claim shut-off violated their water rights." Seattle Post-Intelligencer. Seattle, Washington, October 12.

McClure, R. 2001. "BPA sued over 'salmon massacre' water policy." Seattle Post-Intelligencer. Seattle, Washington, November 6.

Background material (optional):

Hamlet, A. F. and D. P. Lettenmaier. 1999. Columbia River streamflow forecasting based on ENSO and PDO climate signals. ASCE Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management 125(6):333-341. This paper describes the streamflow forecasting technique that is applied in the case study described in CIG Chapter 8 (section 8.4.1).

Bonneville Power Administration (BPA), U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACOE), NPD, Bureau of Reclamation (USBR), PNR. 1991. The Columbia River System: The Inside Story. Report DOE/BP-1689 published for the Columbia River System Review by the USACOE and the USBR, September. This report has good background material on the treaties underlying operation of the Columbia River and the initial operating objectives of the system.

For your interest:

Harden, B. 1996. A River Lost, The Life and Death of the Columbia. New York: W.W. Norton and Co.

Dietrich, W. 1996. Northwest Passage: The Great Columbia River. Seattle: University of Washington Press.

National Marine Fisheries Service, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACOE), Bonneville Power Administration (BPA), and Bureau of Reclamation (USBR). 2000. Biological Opinion: Reinitiation of consultation on operation of the federal Columbia River power system, including the juvenile fish transportation program, and 19 Bureau of Reclamation projects in the Columbia Basin; Endangered Species Act - Section 7 Consultation. National Marine Fisheries Service, Northwest Region, December 21. (Chapter 9: Reasonable and Prudent Alternative).

W6a

Climate impacts on PNW forests

Rhythms of Change, Chapter 6: Climate Impacts on PNW forest ecosystems, by W. S. Keeton, J. F. Franklin, and P. W. Mote.

Kirschbaum, M. U. F. and A. Fischlin. 1996. Climate Change Impacts on Forests. Chapter 1 in Part II of Climate Change 1995: Impacts, Adaptations and Mitigation of Climate Change, Contribution of Working Group II to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. R. T. Watson, M. C. Zinyowera and R. H. Moss, eds. New York, New York, Cambridge University Press. (SKIM)

Peterson, D.L. 1994. Recent changes in the growth and establishment of subalpine conifers in western North America, pp. 234-243. In M. Beniston (ed.), Mountain Environments in Changing Climates.

Background material (optional):

Whitlock, C. 1992. Vegetational and climatic history of the Pacific Northwest during the last 20,000 years: implications for understanding present-day biodiversity. The Northwest Environmental Journal 8:5-28. This paper examines ecological, climatological and geological processes of the past to derive an understanding of present patterns of biodiversity and the implications of future climate change for the PNW.

W6b

Issues in forestry management

Schimel, D.S. 1995. Terrestrial ecosystems and the carbon cycle. Global Change Biology 1:77-91.

The Royal Society. 2001. The role of land carbon sinks in mitigating global climate change. Policy Document 10/01. The Royal Society, London, UK.

W7a

Climate impacts on PNW coasts

Rhythms of Change, Chapter 7: Climate Impacts on PNW Coasts, by D. J. Canning, P. W. Mote, Z. Johnson, J. C. Field, J. Newton, and M. J. Hershman.

The Heinz Center. 2000. Evaluation of Erosion Hazards: Summary. Prepared for the Federal Emergency Management Agency by The H. John Heinz III Center, Washington, D.C.

W7b

Issues in coastal management

Jennings, A. and T. Jennings. 2001. "Management Structures: How We Manage Estuaries in the Pacific Northwest," for the Pacific Northwest Coastal Ecosystems Regional Study (PNCERS) (draft).

W8a

Integrated assessment

Rhythms of Change, Chapter 9: The Integrated Assessment: The sensitivity, adaptability, and vulnerability of the Pacific Northwest to climate variability and change, by E. L. Miles and A. K. Snover.

W8b

Integrated assessment

Dietrich, W. 2000. "The Columbia River and the meaning of life." Presentation to the Columbia River Conference IV, March 16-17.

Thomas, J. W. 2000. "Watching the Columbia River salmon dwindle toward extinction - elephants in the room." Presentation to the Columbia River Conference IV, March 16-17.

VanDevelder, P. 2000. "To breach or not to breach." San Francisco Chronicle, May 22.

Taylor, J. E., III. 2001. "Seeking the entangled bank: Ecologically and economically sustainable salmon recovery." Presentation to Northwest Salmon Crisis Lecture Series, University of Washington, Autumn Quarter.